I have to get one nagging thing off of my chest about Survivor: what is with the misleading promos? Remember last season’s “Hurricane Na’onka” promo which turned out to be little more than a brisk wind in reality? Last week, the promo suggested Grant was going to consider flipping to the Zapatera tribe to take out Rob. What really happened? Grant ate a piece of fish that Ralph caught even though Rob told his tribe not to eat the “dead fish.” Seriously, that was the best promo they could construct from this episode and then they had to make it totally misleading? I know you guys at Survivor can do better than that.
Granted, it wasn’t the most action-packed episode nor the most suspenseful. I don’t think anyone watching had any doubts that two former Zapatera tribe members were going to be voted off tonight and sent to Redemption Island. Rob is totally in control of this game and he has his tribe members completely under his control. I hate to keep going back to Russell’s game play but you can’t help but compare his previous two seasons and how he played to how Rob is playing now. Sure, Russell stayed in the game right up to the final Tribal Council, but he did it more through intimidation and making enemies while Rob is totally manipulating his people but they’re all on board with him. No one has threatened to flip – they know what will happen if they do — because they actually are playing the numbers game and staying united as the Ometepe tribe, even when Ralph desperately tried to point out that it’s an individual game after the merge.
What I’m really interested in knowing, particularly after this episode, is how much power Rob actually has over his tribe members and how much of what we see is editing. We see former Zapatera members throw out little asides to the former Ometepe members equating Rob’s control over them to a mob family — I loved David calling them the Mariano Crime Syndicate — and a cult. Is everyone from Ometepe drinking Rob’s Kool-Aid®, are they really that subserviant to him, do they have that much blind devotion to him to not realize that if he gets to the final three he will most likely win? At this point I can’t imagine anyone else taking home the million dollars because no one else is playing the game as skillfully as Rob. I thought Matt could come back last week and go to the finals, but he was too stupid to trust Rob. If nothing else, that little demonstration of Rob’s power certainly keeps the rest of his tribe in check.
The only thing that could impact Rob’s game is if someone else finds another hidden immunity idol and skillfully plays it against him, especially if it’s someone on his tribe. I could see Phillip or Grant finding an idol and getting the others to vote Rob off after the rest of the Zapatera members are gone. Rob admits he has idol paranoia since his lack of knowledge about the hidden immuntiy idols did him in last time, but so far he’s been very cool about the one that he has. It’s surprising that no one on his tribe has even speculated about the idol or even tried to look for one. Mike and David tried to pull one over on Rob by making him think there was an idol under the tribe flag — and if there had been, Phillip would have been voted out in the first Tribal of the night — and they both paid for their little game by being sent to Redemption Island.
The real question now is what happens once all of the Zapatera are gone and it’s down to Rob’s six? I doubt anyone returning from Redemption Island has a shot at making it to the final three unless they come back when there are four left and win the final immunity challenge if Rob is still in control. Rob has already chosen who he wants to sit beside him at the final Tribal — Natalie and Phillip. I assume he just thinks Natalie is weak and has no pull with the future jury members and he thinks no one will vote for a crazy person like Phillip. He’s doing a good job of letting Phillip know how appreciated his loyalty is while sitting back and letting Phillip’s antics take the spotlight off of him. In all fairness, if the people playing the game really go by the show’s mantra and if Rob is sitting in the final three, he deserves a unanimous vote to win because no one else has put as much thought and effort into every move that has been made except for Rob. At this point, I can’t even think of anyone else who truly deserves the million dollars.
“First and foremost, I’d like to congratulate myself on being the most naïve person ever to play the game of Survivor.” – Matt upon his return to Redemption Island
“I’ve been known to have a mercy killing in me from time to time … haven’t I?” – Rob
Clacked by Chuck Duncan 
on Apr 14, 2011 @ 00:30 EST5EDT
Man, I’ve never seen a tribe give up so quickly. Six to five advantage for Rob’s team, and they act like the game’s already over. Just wow. I wonder if they’ll have another boring double elimination ep next week to take care of Steve and Julie. After that I guess it gets interesting. Presumably Ashley goes first, then Grant, then whoever the uninteresting, non-Natalie girl is. Meanwhile, every time someone is eliminated, Rob solidifies his alliance with those he has left. Whoever makes it back from Redemption only slows the process by one, maybe two councils. (Speaking of which, the editing makes that kind of sticky – are Matt, David, and Mike ALL going to compete in one trial or what?) It’s pretty much in the books by now, and reason for that is that the other players are rookies up against a grandmaster (one who’s playing the game for the 4th time, at that). They just seem boring in comparison, except for crazy Phillip, whose mispronunciations never get old. At this point, I’m feeling like every season should be All-Stars, now that I see the alternative.
*POST AUTHOR*
Yeah, Zapatera has kind of rolled over and died. They don’t even make an effort to try to talk to any of the former Ometepe tribe, but with Rob’s buddy system in effect – and the consequences of talking to a former Zapatera member hanging over their heads – there really isn’t much they can do at this point. Things would have been different had Mike or David actually found an Idol and used it because Phillip or Rob would have been voted out by default. But they have no shot at getting Rob out now unless some huge twist happens at the next Redemption Island duel and the first two out of three players who win get to come back into the game. If Matt comes back, I seriously doubt he’d try to go back to his old tribe (I think his eyes have finally been opened) and David and Mike would work hard to either stay in the game or get Rob out if they returned. But whatever happens, if Rob goes to the final Tribal Council, it really would be a crime and petty jealousies and hard feelings for anyone to not vote for Rob. He hasn’t bullied anyone like Russell did, he’s maintained his “nice guy” persona but he has to be careful that he doesn’t get too cocky. Not talking to anyone on the other tribe may not be the best move, but that constant silence may also be a product of the editing too. I’m sure at some point when they’re sitting around doing nothing, the players are being somewhat sociable with each other, because in the end he’s really only going to have three Ometepe members on the jury (and there is always the possibility that there could only be a final two which would give Rob four jury votes as long as he doesn’t hurt anyone’s feelings). Anyone eliminated by Rob has to suck it up and get over their disappointment at not being in the finals and vote for Rob’s game play.
As for Redemption Island, I’m not sure how that’s going to work – maybe a double elimination. I thought maybe after the first Tribal there would be a duel, so I was surprised that two people were sent to Redemption. It’ll be interesting, but I don’t see anyone coming back and making it to the finals with Rob in charge. I would assume that the week that the elimination puts the first person on the jury will be the week that the Redemption Island winner comes back, so that person will most likely be the first jury member unless they win immunity. That actually could be this coming week if my math is correct – two Redemption Island players are out leaveing one to come back + the three remaining Zapatera + three Ometepe = seven jury members for a final three.