(Michael Pascua is guest clacking for us today. Michael is a contributing writer for TV Squad, who spends the rest of his time watching more TV, reading for grad school, and dreaming of becoming a Filipino pop star. Find his rants and raves on www.MichaelSPascua.com or follow his twitter @MichaelPascua.)
This has been one of the most interesting seasons of Dancing with the Stars since Season Eight had three contestants that were all amazing dancers in the finale. This time we have three polar opposites. Kyle Massey is an entertainment machine, bringing smiles to anyone who watches. Jennifer Grey is technically beautiful and brings grace to all her routines. Bristol Palin is a fan favorite, and though it may be more because of her famous mother, she’s getting the votes any way she can.
Night one of the finale sees the dancers doing a “redemption dance” and their Freestyle. The redemption dance is most likely their lowest scoring dance of the season and the Freestyle is always a wild card. Since the fans vote only after night one, the favorite dance and instant dance of night two is less important than wowing the audience with a freestyle.
Here’s an analysis of the contestants so far. Cumulative Scores Omit the Marathon and Team Dances, but include the technical and performance scores in week four.
Kyle Massey & Lacey Schwimmer
Best Dance: Samba – 29 (10,9,10)
Worst Dance: Foxtrot – 20 (8,5,7)
Cumulative Judges Scores: Carrie Ann – 102 Len – 90 Bruno – 98
Twitter Followers: Kyle (@kylemassey1991) 33,600+, Lacey (@laceyschwimmer) 62,700+
Analysis: Most seasons of Dancing with the Stars has a celebrity that has a direct connection to ABC, last season Erin Andrews of ESPN (owned by ABC) made it to the finals and placed third against two very sharp and precise dancers. This season Kyle has a great chance of winning. He’s tougher on himself than I expected and Lacey gets very serious during practice. They are probably the biggest question mark in the Freestyle category, Kyle is young and may want to go the hip-hop route and Lacey’s last time in the finals she did a hip-hop dance with Lance Bass. They should be warned: most hip-hop themed freestyles lose. Looking at their Argentine Tango, Kyle may also have trouble with lifts, so the two will have to think of something flashy to wow the crowd.
As for the judges, Kyle has already won over Carrie Ann. Kyle still needs to win over Len on the technique area. As for Bruno, Kyle just needs to keep a balance between his technique and crowd pleasing attitude. I wouldn’t be shocked if they finally give him 10s for his Freestyle.
Should Place: Second
Will Place: Second
Jennifer Grey & Derek Hough
Best Dance: Rumba – 30 (10,10,10)
Worst Dance: Paso Doble – 20 (6,7,7)
Cumulative Judges Scores: Carrie Ann – 105 Len – 105 Bruno – 117
Twitter Followers: Jennifer (@therealjgrey) 10,800+ Derek (@OfficialDHough) 84,800+
Analysis: There’s a retro feeling having Jennifer Grey around. Her fanbase consists of people who love Dirty Dancing and Ferris Bueller’s Day Off and they must skew older than both Kyle and Bristol. Jennifer doesn’t seem to have as many Twitter followers and the fact that she’s so old could be a detriment. To counteract that, Derek has become a bit of a celebrity himself and has won DWTS twice with Brooke Burke and Nicole Scherzinger. He’s proven to be a great choreographer and his dances listen to Len’s critiques.
Jennifer’s biggest issue is her health. With a freestyle where anything goes, Derek will want to do as many outlandish tricks as possible and it doesn’t seem likely that Jennifer’s body could handle it. The two will have to figure out how to bring the flash without breaking Jennifer’s neck or popping a hip.
Should Place: First
Will Place: Third
Bristol Palin & Mark Ballas
Best Dance: Paso Doble – 27 (9,9,9)
Worst Dance: Rumba – Technique 18 (6,6,6) Performance – 14 (4,5,5)
Cumulative Judges Scores: Carrie Ann – 83 Len – 86 Bruno – 87
Twitter Followers: Mark (@MarkBallas) 54,800+
Analysis: On paper Bristol Palin is lacking in every department: she’s behind on cumulative scores, has no official Twitter account to motivate her fans, and has neither the dancing technique of Jennifer nor the entertainment factor of Kyle. Surprisingly, Carrie Ann is the toughest judge on Bristol, most likely because Bristol dances like an emotionless robot and Carrie Ann loves passion and entertainment value. The best way for Bristol to both win over Carrie Ann and create a dynamic freestyle is to follow Erin Andrews and create a Contemporary Freestyle in the vein of routines on So You Think You Can Dance. Not only would that show emotion, the performance could be less technically amazing, but still look visually stunning.
This is the first season that both Mark and Derek have made it to the finals so the brotherly rivalry will probably come into effect. They may be best friends, but both want to win and it will be interesting to see what Mark will do.
Should Place: Third
Will Place: First
Outside Factors:
Brandy & Maks’ Fanbase — Maks has been very vocal about the couples’ elimination not being fair since Brandy was not in the bottom of the board. If Brandy & Maks’ fans would want to vote, they are definitely going to vote for the person that scored the highest because that would be the definition of “the best.” In reality, I have a feeling most fans are jaded that Bristol knocked out Brandy so they will probably split their votes between Jennifer and Kyle.
Judges Skewed Scoring — For the past two seasons judges have scored the final dance performed as: First = 30, Second = 28, Third = 26. Although all three dances could have been a perfect thirty or ranked even lower, the forced score helps separate the judges’ percentage of the vote. This could actually help Bristol get closer to scoring with Kyle and Jennifer.
In the end, the Freestyle is the key factor to winning the season. I can see both Kyle and Jennifer do boring routines and Bristol end up doing something so outlandish and amazing that her freestyle scores compensate for lower ballroom/Latin routines. As long as she keeps the judges scores close and force a 33% split, Bristol has it in the bag because she clearly has the largest fan base. Whether or not people want to admit it, it’s all about the fan’s vote this season and if people don’t get up and vote Bristol will win.
Clacked by Guest Clacker
on Nov 22, 2010 @ 13:58 EST5EDT
All I know is NOBODY puts Baby in a corner.
i don’t think its fair that dancing with the stars brings in celebrities that have dancing like brandy or grey…..very unfair to put those that can’t dance up against them to win…..start being so what fair…grey doesn’t impress me….she is like a little girl that needs a binky constantly and acts like she never danced before….oh please….
i WANT TO VOTE FOR jENNIFER gREY
Jennifer Grey deserves to win!! Ballroom dancing is different than any other kind of dancing. Every dance style has it’s own unique rhythmns and framing. The Quick Step and the Samba are totally different. Each dance has to be learned. Sometimes previous dance experience and/or training is a handicap because the styling and positions one has danced in the past have to be “unlearned” or overcome to dance Ballroom. It is not easy to change. I know, I’m a professional dancer. Bravo Jennifer Grey!!!
I don’t think its fair that Bristal is on the show at all she is not a star and it is called dancing with the stars she is just a shadow of mommy who should not be on at all why not pick anyone off the streets if your going to let non stars on the show the rest of them are actors, actress, or sport stars, singers and dancers so please tell me where Bristal fits in there. and like the lady up there said no body puts baby in the corner!!!!!
If Bristol wins I am done watching. This is not about who is the best dancer it is about politics. Shame on DWTS for putting her on.
At first I thought Bristol was somewhat nice but now she acts like the wounded party talking about all the unfavorable press. When lets face it her Mom and the tea party are the only reason she is still there. I do not know why this upsets me as much as it does
it is not life or death. I guess scares me more is Sarah Palin.
I definitely agree with you. I am done with the show if Bristol wins. She is not the best dancer and was not a star so should not have even been on the show.
DWTS know exactly what they are getting away with, Palin is used as a sucker to get everyone attention on her while they slip Jennifer back to the top. The only way this could happen is sent Brandy home. ABC make billions, money is paid to Sarah Palin because she kept the attention on her daughter so the young folk who voted during the election for president would stay home and fight online about DWTS. It worked!
It’s all about ratings folks.The show will do what they have to do to keep ratings up fair or not.Stars with a lot of dancing experience should not be on the show.They all should have an equal chance of winning.They would like Bristol to win but if they do that over Jennifer ratings surely will drop.I like jennifer but in my opinion Kyle is the most entertaining.If Bristol wins I will not watch the show anymore.I don’t watch it much now.I don’t think the voters have that much to say about who wins, they would like you to think so.
I found Kyle and Lacey freestyle the most entertaining.
I didn’t think Kyle had that much endurance.
Personality wise they seem to be the perfect match.
I like the give and take.
Jennifer Grey & Derek Hough freestyle was very good,
I would gave them a 29
I like there redemption dance even more solid 30
Palin did more walkin’ than than dancin’ in her freestyle.
It was subpar. She looked uncomfortable. Should had
chosen a different routine. Might have helped.
Nice article. I liked the Best/Worst dance parallelism. Fingers crossed for this week. Either way DWTS did a very nice piece of marketing this time around.
I actually liked Bristol’s freestyle. She has came a long way this season. I do believe she deserves to be in the finals because after all, America put her there. Get a life and stop giving her so much crap.
I donot think Bristol deserves to win. If her mother would keep her nose out of it and stay in Alaska where she belongs and let the voting be left up to the judges and a fair count from the viewers Jennifer will win. I heard on HLN that the voting is not fair and it has been tampered with. If Bristol wins I will never watch the show again. I was told a few episodes ago that there was a dance off.If this is true and Bristol wins can there be a dance off? Brandy should be #3 at least not Bristol.It is bad that politics has to be a part of winning.
She does not “belong” in Alaska. Many contestants, current and past have more famous people rooting for them in the audience.
How do you know Jennifer would win in your perfect scenario? Maybe she’s not America’s favorite. She’s talented, but she’s not my favorite. I like Kyle. That kid makes me happy.
Sorry, politics is a part of everything. Especially now. The more the naysayers mistreat Bristol, the more people will come to her defense. I feel it myself, and I like I said, Kyle is my guy.
I don’t think that Brisol Palin should win she is not the greatest dancer to start with. I think Jennifer Grey and Derek Hough deserve to win they are amazing at their dances that they do… Bristol deserves place #3! If it’s true that Brisol wins i will hate the show forever!!!!!!!!!!!!