Fall 2009 pre-season predictions: Thursday

Good grief … Thursdays are going to be tough on viewers. I don’t know about your schedule, but it looks like I’m going to have to find time to watch 7½ hours of television Thursday night. At least, initially. As for the ratings game, there are a number of interesting new additions to the night. The big questions I see: Is FlashForward more toward the Lost side of the scale, or The Nine side? Is Community an upgrade from My Name Is Earl? And what will happen when Fringe doesn’t have the Idol juggernaut opening the night?

Kicking things off at 8:00, I’ve purposely ignored the series of SNL: Weekend Update specials that will start the season. It’s not really the regular programming, and Community is the better story. That said, it’s worth noting for the simple fact that NBC has done a smart thing in letting Community open the season behind The Office, before moving to 8:00 to lead off the night. That will offer up a lot more exposure for those first few episodes. Will it make a hit? Not really. The pilot has been well received, and it does fit in well with the NBC comedy block. But given the competition, and the style of Community, it’s not going to be a breakout phenomenon. I think it will still do well enough, bettering the numbers that Earl was bringing to the network. A better lead-in won’t hurt Parks & Recreation, either, but then without something drastic changing, I don’t see that one picking up much at all either way. It’s just not that good.

That will likely land NBC in fourth for the hour, but those top three positions are a tougher call. If you want to go with the history, Survivor is still the front-runner. Even after all these years, the show is capable of getting 12 million viewers and a 3.5 demo. Bones brought new life to Thursdays for FOX, but three million viewers, and a point in the demo is a lot of ground to make up. I do expect it to get closer, but it’s not ready to topple Survivor just yet. The real question mark though, is FlashForward. ABC is really banking on this being the big hit show for the new season. I can’t help thinking of The Nine every time I hear about the idea of the flashes. And man, did that not pan out well last time.

The long con is always a tougher sell on TV, and this has all the makings of that. The producers have been proactive about promising that the first season is a complete story, and the questions asked in the pilot will be answered, etc. But come on now … we’ve heard that before. It’s the kind of stuff that chases a certain segment of viewers away, and I think it’s what keeps FlashForward from challenging Survivor. With all the promotion though, and good early buzz, the battle for second with Bones could be very interesting.

At 9:00, they’re at it again. Grey’s Anatomy and CSI will once again square off to see which is the number one show for the night. In recent history, CSI has held the edge in viewers, with Grey’s taking the lead in the demo. The tide started to swing with the departure of Grissom, though. The end of last season was not kind to the CSI numbers, opening the door for Grey’s to take the night outright this season. CBS has announced their plan to right the ship, which involves updating Dr. Langston’s (Laurence Fishburne) wardrobe…. Seriously, I don’t think the new duds are going to be much help, but planned absences for Meredith (Ellen Pompeo) and Izzie (Katherine Heigl) could factor in. At the end of the day, Grey’s wins the night, with CSI second.

Although … that could just be second in viewers, depending on how much the demo drops for CSI. It’s actually possible that we could see CSI fall as far as fourth in the demo. The Office was beating CSI regularly last season, but the drop for 30 Rock usually pulled NBC to third for the hour. If 30 Rock can make any gains — and it’s entirely possible given all the good press that show gets — NBC could finally get over the hump against CSI, possibly bringing the first (very early) signs of the end of the franchise.

But then there’s Fringe. The numbers from last season would be good enough to lock the show in at second place in the demo. So the question becomes, how much are they going to drop now that Idol isn’t in front of the show? My best guess is Fringe averaging 8 million viewers and just over a 3 demo. That should give it a few more viewers than the NBC hour, and a little less demo. It will be a noticeable drop for the show. The good news though, is that it will still be a success for FOX. With that, Bones and Fringe will now be a solid Thursday night for the network. Something it hasn’t had in a very long time.

At 10:00, it’s another win for CBS. The interesting battle isn’t Private Practice vs. The Mentalist. It’s The Mentalist vs. CSI. Given the numbers the show was turning in last season, The Mentalist could actually do better than CSI on the night. And here’s a thought: Crazy as it seems after so many years with CSI as the big Thursday hit, if that pans out, the smart move might be flipping the two shows. Private Practice should continue to do well after Grey’s, as ABC has finally found a pairing that works for viewers. But The Mentalist will take the hour. And this is one night where Leno has no shot at anything other than a last place finish.

Finally, our old friends at The CW are doing something rather odd on Thursday. They’re breaking up what was easily the network’s most consistent night last season. Despite all the ridiculous competition, Smallville and Supernatural continued to grind out solid numbers all season. I find the moving of Smallville very odd, indeed. And I have to say it looks like a downgrade for the night.

Naturally, we’ll have to wait to see how the show pans out, but Vampire Diaries feels tired to me already. They are just too late to the game with their vampire entry. It won’t measure up to the Smallville numbers from last season. Fortunately for Kripke and the crew at Supernatural, their fans are hardcore. A change in lead-in isn’t going to mean much to Supernatural. It will continue to do its thing, with or without Clark’s help.

Clacked by Brett Love
on Sep 03, 2009 @ 11:00 EST5EDT